The Attribution Illusion: Why Web3 Teams Still Don’t Know What Works

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The Attribution Illusion: Why Web3 Teams Still Don’t Know What Works
How wallet-based analytics are missing the real story—and what to do about it
The Problem

Web3 teams pour resources into growth, but attribution is still broken:

  • Wallet ≠ User: One person can have dozens of wallets, or share wallets across teams.
  • Off-Chain Blindness: Most analytics ignore Discord, Telegram, and off-chain onboarding steps.
  • Multi-Chain Confusion: Users bridge, swap, and interact across chains—attribution gets lost in translation.
What No One Tells You
  • “Last Touch” is a Mirage: The last wallet event is rarely the real driver of conversion.
  • Sybil Resistance is Not Enough: Even with Sybil filters, attribution is fuzzy without behavioral context.
  • True Value is Downstream: The best users often come from unexpected, hard-to-track sources.
What You Can Do
  • Adopt multi-touch attribution—track the full journey, not just the last event.
  • Integrate off-chain signals (community, support, education) into your analytics.
  • Use cross-chain stitching to follow users wherever they go.
  • Continuously audit your attribution models for bias and blind spots.

In 2025, the best teams will see through the attribution illusion—and build for real, not just visible, growth.