The Retention Mirage: Why Web3 Churn Is Hiding in Plain Sight
How DAU/MAU can fool you—and what real retention looks like in 2025
The Problem
Web3 teams celebrate DAU/MAU, but real retention is often much lower:
- Speculator Activity: Many “active” users are just checking prices or claiming rewards, not engaging.
- Community Decay: Discord and Telegram numbers stay high, but real conversation and support vanish.
- Multi-Wallet Churn: Users churn on one wallet, but show up as “new” on another.
What No One Tells You
- Classic Retention Metrics Don’t Work: DAU/MAU is easily gamed by bots and airdrop hunters.
- On-Chain ≠ Engaged: A wallet that signs a transaction isn’t necessarily a real user.
- Qualitative Signals Matter: Support tickets, community feedback, and education engagement are key.
What You Can Do
- Track multi-session engagement—not just wallet activity.
- Integrate community and support signals into your retention models.
- Use behavioral analytics to spot true churn and re-engagement.
- Continuously audit your retention metrics for “mirage” activity.
In 2025, the best Web3 teams will build for real retention—not just the illusion of it.